Will US invade? Three ways Cuba crisis could play out now

May 21, 2026

The United States has indicted 94-year-old former Cuban president Raúl Castro for murder related to a 1996 aircraft incident, intensifying pressure on Cuba's Communist government amid severe fuel and energy crises on the island. While President Trump suggests military action may be unnecessary as Cuba's economy deteriorates, US officials are exploring multiple approaches including potential military extraction of Castro, negotiations with current Cuban leadership for regime transition, or waiting for economic collapse to destabilize the government. The administration conducted talks with Cuban officials, including Castro's grandson, seeking changes like economic opening and removal of Russian and Chinese intelligence presence while potentially keeping government structures intact.

Who is affected

Raúl Castro (facing murder charges)
The Cuban government and Communist Party leadership
Cuban officials including Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro (Castro's grandson) and Interior Minister Lázaro Álvarez Casas
The Cuban population (experiencing fuel shortages, blackouts, food scarcity, and reduced caloric intake)
Cuban exile groups (potentially involved in future arrangements)
US lawmakers and officials advocating for regime change
Potential Cuban refugees
Venezuela's government under Delcy Rodriguez (mentioned as parallel case)
Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies operating in Cuba

What action is being taken

The US has charged Raúl Castro with murder
The US is conducting a maximum pressure campaign causing fuel and energy shortages in Cuba
CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Cuban officials including Castro's grandson and the Interior Minister
The Trump administration is engaging in talks with Cuban officials
Cuban citizens are subsisting on severely reduced caloric intake (1,000-1,500 calories daily)
The US is dealing with figures inside Cuba seeking American assistance

Why it matters

This situation represents a potential turning point in US-Cuba relations that could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Western Hemisphere. The combination of criminal charges against a revolutionary leader, severe economic pressure, and active negotiations creates multiple pathways toward ending Cuba's 66-year Communist government, which would fundamentally alter the regional balance of power. The outcome could establish precedent for US intervention in sovereign nations, affect Russian and Chinese intelligence operations in the region, and potentially trigger a humanitarian crisis involving mass migration that would directly impact US immigration policy and Florida's population. The situation also tests whether economic pressure alone can force political transformation without military intervention.

What's next

The Trump administration will continue engaging with Cuban officials to seek a negotiated agreement
Cuba needs to make a decision about accepting US-proposed changes
Potential outcomes being monitored include economic collapse, domestic turmoil, or US military intervention
Possible changes could include Cuba opening its economy, inviting foreign investment, involving Cuban exile groups, and ending Russian and Chinese intelligence presence on the island

Read full article from source: BBC